As I anticipated last week, the Republicans discredited themselves and yet failed to defend President Trump. None of them showed any real interest in the facts at issue, therefore abrogating any pretense of representing the interests of justice or the American people in these matters. If they think they are acting as the people's attorneys, we should fire them all. Ironically, they reinforced Cohen's testimony by calling him a liar, which he readily and forthrightly agreed to. The Republicans seemed oblivious to the twin elephants in the room: a) Cohen's career of lying was at the behest of and for the benefit of Trump, his employer and primary if not sole client; and b) Congressional Republicans while in power through 2018 never doubted, cross-examined or investigated Cohen's bald-faced lies, which they now pretend to be so indignant about. They were so polite to him and gullible when it was obvious to many of us that he was lying on behalf of Trump, but now when he admits he lied then and is going to jail for that, they remain so incredulously uninterested in why he was lying and what he was attempting to hide on behalf of Trump. Republicans in Congress are cutting their own throats.
New potential crimes and interesting leads for further investigation were exposed in Cohen's sworn testimony: a) AOC and others elicited from him testimony that (as long alleged) he has falsely inflated his wealth, but not just to journalists, which is not a crime, but also to at least one huge global bank (Deutsche Bank) and an unnamed insurance company, which would both be felonies: bank and insurance fraud. b) Cohen named several people, including Trump, his sons, and Trump Organization staff, involved with Cohen in several of the felonies for which he is going to jail and further matters still under investigation by the Southern District of New York. Since these several felonies seem to have been perpetrated by and through the Trump Organization (TO), there is a strong probability that the SDNY is investigating the entire TO as a criminal enterprise under RICO statutes. Since such crimes would be charged under both New York state and Federal law, there is no way for Trump to issue a self-interested pardon for the New York crimes, and pardons for the Federal crimes would add heft to an obstruction of justice charge in any articles of impeachment by Congress. Alternatively, the SDNY may be keeping RICO indictments under seal until Trump leaves office. Assuming a Democrat wins the presidency in 2020, the indictments could be unsealed in 2021 and the possibility of pardons for any of them eliminated.
Cohen testified under oath that Trump lied to Mueller about Trump's knowledge and direction of Roger Stone and others involved in the already proven Russian election meddling. Republicans still persist in trying to discredit him as a possible liar in such matters, but they have to realize that with all the phone and email records Mueller has, not to mention cooperating witnesses, Cohen is not the one out on a limb. He will likely know there is ample documentary corroboration for his testimony, as he mentioned yesterday. Therefore, since the broad public impact of this is much greater than merely the business crimes of the TO, and it involves conspiracy with a hostile foreign power to inflict significant injury on the United States for personal gain, this seems to me to be the basis for a clear-cut charge of treason, the most damning charge any articles of impeachment could ever include. Remember this is the only crime for which the constitution specifically authorizes the death penalty, although the Criminal Act of 1990 limited the maximum penalty for treason to life imprisonment.
Cohen implicated Trump's lawyer Jay Sekulow as a co-conspirator in his previous false testimony to Congress. This is a new lead to follow up. If Cohen is right, Sekulow would lose attorney-client privilege and would himself be criminally liable. This is also a great danger to Trump, since Sekulow might then have an incentive to flip on Trump like Cohen did. Sekulow now denies this, but we must wonder if Cohen knows there is corroborating evidence. He seemed unhesitating in making this serious charge. It is very likely that he or his attorneys cleared his testimony in advance with Mueller's team and the SDNY so he does not violate confidence in any ongoing probes, so dropping this tidbit is even more ominous.
Cohen testified that he threatened people and organizations roughly 500 times on Trump's behalf. These threats open up the possibility of multiple criminal and civil actions in local courts throughout the U.S., including at least New York, New Jersey, Florida and California. Three of those four jurisdictions are currently under Democratic Party rule, so the chance of state pardons is non-existent in these. Florida, the only one of those four currently under Republican Party rule, is very likely to flip to Democratic Party control in 2022 with the massively shifting voter rolls there and the extreme closeness of the statewide elections of 2018. Furthermore, there is no such thing as pardon power for civil actions. Trump staff such as Cohen who facilitated his gouging of people and businesses and suppression of speech will now be testifying on behalf of the plaintiffs in these various civil suits. Lawyers across America are salivating at the rich prospects of these numerous civil suits. If only the Trump and the TO were as rich as they claim! But in any case, between the potential RICO charges and the multiplicity of civil suits, he and his family will be financially ruined. Trump is not even competent to write a best-selling jailhouse memoir.
If I were Trump's lawyer (surely an unenviable role), I would advise him to do what Spiro Agnew did in 1973 and negotiate the best resignation deal I could while there might still be a chance for it. The enormous advantage for Trump to resign before his term ends is that then Pence becomes president and can use his pardon powers, as Ford did for Nixon, to relieve him of at least the most serious potential federal charges, such as treason. If Trump manages to cling to power until his term ends, the personal and political disaster for him, his family, and the Republican Party will be much greater. Whichever Democrat wins the presidency in 2020 (and this is an election result even more assured than a Democratic victory in 1976 was, given the much greater scope and impact of Trump's crimes compared to Nixon's), there will obviously be no prospect of any federal pardons.
"Drain the swamp" was one of the most popular Trump campaign chants of 2016. Anti-corruption and rule of law is one of the most bipartisan issues for any candidate to run on. As I have said in public lectures, there was a silver lining in the 2016 elections as with those since. Right, left and center, the majority of Americans are sick of corruption and big money in politics. When offered the chance, people always prefer candidates who shun corrupt money politics, regardless of their policy promises. Promises don't mean a thing if a candidate is bought. He who pays the piper calls the tune. The Citizens United decision that contributed to the flood of money into politics so corrupted the process and so undermined the quality and integrity of big-donor-driven candidates, that voters are waking up to the virtue of voting only for candidates who shun corporate and political PAC contributions. Roger Stone, the latest corrupt political trickster to be exposed by Mueller, along with his disgraced former business partner, Paul Manafort, were among the inventors of the political PAC and the dirty lying style of politics and fake news that has flourished since their youth under Nixon. They and many like them built their wealth and careers pimping for anyone who paid, including murderous foreign dictators. Now that the Republican Party is heading, lemming-like, into a political abyss in the 2020 election because it has for years nominated candidates and hired operatives largely on the depth of their depravity, their craven love of money and obeisance to the donor class, there are so few Republican office holders in Washington with any principles or backbone that they have no gumption to stand up even for the rule of law, let alone good governance. Nor should the Democratic Party be smug. Democrats are looking good by default no matter what they do, but if voters see Democrats acting just as craven as the current crop of Republican yes men (gender reference intended, so few of them are women), incumbents had better watch their backs during the 2020 primary elections, because there will be a lot of angry voters looking for integrity in candidates, not empty suits mouthing fatuous platitudes. Fortunately, as evidenced by the quality and variety of Democrats who won in 2018 and will run in 2020, the wind is shifting within that party.