Numerous authors claim that China’s military modernization will create a new superpower and threaten the balance of power in Asia in the coming decades. Just as people only grow older,
militaries only modernize. What matters for balance of power is not absolute, but rather relative modernization. Most writings on China’s military modernization neglect comparisons of China
with its most likely enemies. Despite rapid economic growth, China is actually becoming weaker militarily relative to Taiwan and all of its other potential rivals (except Russia, which has declined
even faster). China’s military equipment is the most backward of any large or medium-sized power. It is much inferior, for example, to the equipment used by Iraq during the Gulf War. Military
training in China is also inferior to that of its major neighbors. Although as a nuclear power China could conceivably practice nuclear terrorism (at enormous cost to its relations with the rest of the world), China’s conventional military capability is surprisingly limited. This paper focuses on military capabilities, which are relatively easy to discern, rather than intentions, which are
changeable, covert and often disguised by public posturing.
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